Cost-effectiveness of dengue control strategies in Bangladesh: An optimal control and ACER-ICER analysis

Abstract

The prevalence of the dengue virus in Bangladesh is extensive, significantly contributing to both illness and death. Managing outbreaks of dengue fever poses a challenge in tropical regions like Bangladesh, where consistently warm temperatures allow mosquitoes to breed and the virus to proliferate. This study introduces a deterministic model with four compartments to represent the transmission of the dengue virus, with parameters estimated using the 2023 outbreak data in Bangladesh. Utilizing the next generation method, we calculate the basic reproduction number $\left(R_b\right)$ and conduct sensitivity analysis to explore how various model parameters impact the transmission and spread of dengue in the population. Furthermore, personal protective measures and treatment are incorporated into our proposed model. Numerical simulations are conducted, using the average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to assess the cost-effectiveness of different control strategies, focusing on different control measures with varying cost weights. The findings demonstrate that the combined application of controls avert more infections at a minimal expenses. Additionally, there is a reciprocal relationship between the extent of control efforts and cost weights.