Global and regional burden of breast cancer attributable to high BMI, 1990–2036: A comprehensive analysis

Abstract

Objectives

This study aimed to assess global, regional, and national trends in breast cancer burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2021 and provide projections up to 2036 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

Study design

Systematic analysis of the GBD 2021 dataset.

Methods

We extracted high BMI-related breast cancer data from the GBD 2021 dataset, covering 204 countries and territories. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to analyze temporal patterns and regional differences. Future trends were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Results

In 2021, high BMI contributed to 44,707 breast cancer deaths and 1,041,309 DALYs globally, reflecting a 138.5 % and 142.7 % increase, respectively, compared to 1990. While global age-standardized mortality and DALY rates remained relatively stable, the absolute burden significantly increased, particularly in low- and middle-SDI regions. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest age-standardized rates, but low-SDI regions showed the fastest growth. Projections indicate that the global burden of breast cancer due to high BMI will continue to rise until 2036, driven by increasing obesity rates and insufficient healthcare resources.

Conclusions

High body mass index is a major driver of the global breast cancer burden, showing increasing trends not only in high-income regions but more prominently in low-SDI regions. Effective strategies, including public health interventions targeting obesity management, are needed to control the rising burden.