Carotid Plaque-Burden scale and outcomes: A real-life study

Abstract

Background

The value of carotid ultrasound in real-world practice remains controversial. We investigated the outcomes of people with vascular risk factors according to an easy carotid-plaque burden scale (CPB-scale). Predictive yield of the addition CPB-scale to ESC-SCORE2 (CPB-SCORE2 table) was assessed.

Methods

A cohort of participants without preexisting cardiovascular disease (CVD) was evaluated for clinical outcomes according to the number of plaques by segment. The usefulness of the CPB-SCORE2 table was investigated.

Results

A total of 1004 patients were followed for a mean of 12.5 years for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and death. The CPB-scale was independently associated with MACEs; compared to those in the low-risk group, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for MACEs among the intermediate and high-risk groups were 13.1 (4.87–35.5) and 19.4 (7.27–51.9), respectively. Similarly, the risk of death was greater for participants stratified as high-risk than for those in the low-risk group (adjusted HR 3.36 [1.58–7.15]). According to our CPB-SCORE2 table, 149 of 178 (84%) CV events were detected in the high-risk group and exhibited greater sensitivity than did the SCORE2 Table, 84%; vs. 62%; but slightly less specificity, 62%; vs. 68%. Our table shows the improved performance of SCORE2; c-statistics: 0.74 vs. 0.68; p < 0.001 for net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index.

Conclusions

A simple prognostic CPB-scale was strongly associated with the long-term risk of developing a first MACE and all-cause death. Adding the CPB-scale to the SCORE2 may improve risk prediction with easy applicability in clinical practice.