Inference to the Best Explanation as a Form of Non-Deductive Reasoning in Mathematics

Abstract

This paper proposes that mathematicians routinely use inference to the best explanation (IBE) to confirm their conjectures. Mathematicians can justly reason that the ‘best explanation’ of some mathematical evidence they possess would be a proof of it that likewise proves a given conjecture. By IBE, the evidence thereby confirms that such an as-yet-undiscovered proof exists and that the conjecture holds. This reasoning can be expressed in Bayesian terms once Bayesianism’s logical omniscience has been circumvented. A Bayesian analysis identifies considerations affecting a mathematical IBE’s strength and helps to unify mathematical IBEs with scientific IBEs.