Impacts of climate change on Pakistan’s weather patterns: a comprehensive study of temperature and precipitation trends

Abstract

Pakistan, located in an arid region characterized by low rainfall and high temperatures, faces significant vulnerability to climate change. The country’s diverse meteorological conditions pose significant challenges for effective climate modeling. This study focuses on analyzing long-term meteorological time series data (1981–2020) from various regions across Pakistan to examine regional climate variability and detect emerging weather trends. Seventeen climate indices were calculated to assess weather patterns, followed by trend analysis utilizing both parametric and non-parametric methods. The parametric approach employed ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, while the non-parametric methods included the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s Slope (SS) estimator. Over the 40-year period, the analysis revealed significant trends, such as increases in hot days, cold nights, warm nights, and extreme precipitation events. These findings emphasize the distinct and complex regional impacts of climate change in Pakistan. By identifying these trends through robust statistical techniques like OLS, MK, and SS, the study provides critical evidence of climate shifts, emphasizing the urgent need for tailored, region-specific strategies to strengthen resilience against the adverse effects of climate change.