Mortality trends and causes of death in a South African hospital complex pre- and during COVID-19.

Abstract

Background: Before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), global health was improving, with declining mortality trends. The pandemic disrupted this progress, increasing mortality in South Africa between April 2020 and March 2022. Pre-pandemic data establishes a baseline for assessing COVID-19's impact on all-cause mortality.

Objectives: This study examines changes in hospital-based mortality trends in a Gauteng hospital complex from April 2018 to March 2022, addressing the scarcity of such studies during the COVID-19 era.

Method: A retrospective review of 7815 deaths from April 2018 to March 2022 was conducted. Chi-squared tests were used to analyse deaths by age group and gender, with correlations reported.

Results: Mortality rates rose from 3.2% in 2018-2019, peaked at 5.1% in 2020-2021, and declined to 4.2% in 2021-2022. Patients aged 15 years-64 years had the highest death rates, with an increase among those over 65. Male deaths exceeded female deaths, with the smallest difference observed in 2020-2021. Leading causes of death included diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems, neoplasms, digestive system diseases, and infectious and parasitic diseases.

Conclusion: The study highlights COVID-19's impact on mortality, showing variations by year, age, gender, and disease.

Contribution: Excess non-COVID-19 deaths likely stemmed from disrupted healthcare services. These findings underscore the need for ongoing monitoring of hospital mortality to identify pandemic-related service disruptions and guide interventions to strengthen healthcare services, improve access to care, and enhance referral systems during unexpected disasters.