Construction and evaluation of glucocorticoid dose prediction model based on genetic and clinical characteristics of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Abstract

Currently, no glucocorticoid dose prediction model is available for clinical practice. This study aimed to utilise machine learning techniques to develop and validate personalised dosage models. Participants were patients with SLE who were registered at Nanfang Hospital and received prednisone. Univariate analysis was used to confirm the feature variables. Subsequently, the random forest (RF) algorithm was utilised to interpolate the absent values of the feature variables. Finally, we assessed the prediction capabilities of 11 machine learning and deep-learning algorithms (Logistic, SVM, RF, Adaboost, Bagging, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, MLP, and TabNet). Finally, a confusion matrix was used to validate the three regimens. In total, 129 patients met the inclusion criteria. The XGBoost algorithm was selected as the preferred method because of its superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.81. The factors exhibiting the highest correlation with the prednisone dose were CYP3A4 (rs4646437), albumin (ALB), haemoglobin (HGB), anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies (Anti-dsDNA), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), age, and HLA-DQA1 (rs2187668). Based on validation, the precision and recall rates for low-dose prednisone (⩾5 mg but <7.5 mg/d) were 100% and 40% respectively. Similarly, for medium-dose prednisone (⩾7.5 mg but <30 mg/d), the accuracy and recall rates were 88% and 88%, and for high-dose prednisone (⩾30 mg but ⩽100 mg/d), the accuracy and recall rates were 62% and 100% respectively. A robust machine learning model was developed to accurately predict prednisone dosage by integrating the identified genetic and clinical factors.