Arsineh Boodaghian Asl, Jayanth Raghothama, Adam S Darwich, Sebastiaan Meijer
{"title":"A dynamic nonlinear flow algorithm to model patient flow.","authors":"Arsineh Boodaghian Asl, Jayanth Raghothama, Adam S Darwich, Sebastiaan Meijer","doi":"10.1038/s41598-025-96536-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Hospitals are complex systems, and the flow of patients is dynamic and nonlinear in such systems. Network representation allows flow algorithms to observe bottlenecks as candidates for optimisation. To model the dynamic behaviour of the patient flow, we need to consider the variability in arrival rates and service times (length of stay). Previously proposed dynamic flow algorithms mainly focused on arrival and departure rates, inflow and outflow, edges' and vertices' capacity, and routing, with applications mainly in transportation and telecommunication. In hospitals, bottlenecks that emerge from the patients' flow are a result of the vertices (wards) behaviour defined by capacity (beds), number of servers (staff), service time variability, and edges (care pathways) distribution probability. We offer a modified flow algorithm that takes a hospital network, iterates over the patients' arrival rates, and measures the flow with respect to vertices' capacities, servers, service time variability, edge capacity, and distribution probability. The result is a dynamic residual graph to measure the bottlenecks' persistency and severity, identify the root causes of bottlenecks, and wards' dynamic nonlinear behaviour. The algorithm provides a quick holistic view of hospital performance and the analysis of the edges and vertices' behaviour over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":21811,"journal":{"name":"Scientific Reports","volume":"15 1","pages":"12052"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11978915/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Scientific Reports","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-96536-z","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Hospitals are complex systems, and the flow of patients is dynamic and nonlinear in such systems. Network representation allows flow algorithms to observe bottlenecks as candidates for optimisation. To model the dynamic behaviour of the patient flow, we need to consider the variability in arrival rates and service times (length of stay). Previously proposed dynamic flow algorithms mainly focused on arrival and departure rates, inflow and outflow, edges' and vertices' capacity, and routing, with applications mainly in transportation and telecommunication. In hospitals, bottlenecks that emerge from the patients' flow are a result of the vertices (wards) behaviour defined by capacity (beds), number of servers (staff), service time variability, and edges (care pathways) distribution probability. We offer a modified flow algorithm that takes a hospital network, iterates over the patients' arrival rates, and measures the flow with respect to vertices' capacities, servers, service time variability, edge capacity, and distribution probability. The result is a dynamic residual graph to measure the bottlenecks' persistency and severity, identify the root causes of bottlenecks, and wards' dynamic nonlinear behaviour. The algorithm provides a quick holistic view of hospital performance and the analysis of the edges and vertices' behaviour over time.
期刊介绍:
We publish original research from all areas of the natural sciences, psychology, medicine and engineering. You can learn more about what we publish by browsing our specific scientific subject areas below or explore Scientific Reports by browsing all articles and collections.
Scientific Reports has a 2-year impact factor: 4.380 (2021), and is the 6th most-cited journal in the world, with more than 540,000 citations in 2020 (Clarivate Analytics, 2021).
•Engineering
Engineering covers all aspects of engineering, technology, and applied science. It plays a crucial role in the development of technologies to address some of the world''s biggest challenges, helping to save lives and improve the way we live.
•Physical sciences
Physical sciences are those academic disciplines that aim to uncover the underlying laws of nature — often written in the language of mathematics. It is a collective term for areas of study including astronomy, chemistry, materials science and physics.
•Earth and environmental sciences
Earth and environmental sciences cover all aspects of Earth and planetary science and broadly encompass solid Earth processes, surface and atmospheric dynamics, Earth system history, climate and climate change, marine and freshwater systems, and ecology. It also considers the interactions between humans and these systems.
•Biological sciences
Biological sciences encompass all the divisions of natural sciences examining various aspects of vital processes. The concept includes anatomy, physiology, cell biology, biochemistry and biophysics, and covers all organisms from microorganisms, animals to plants.
•Health sciences
The health sciences study health, disease and healthcare. This field of study aims to develop knowledge, interventions and technology for use in healthcare to improve the treatment of patients.