Likelihoods of compound dry-hot-windy events are projected to increase under global warming

Abstract

Dry, hot, and windy conditions are detrimental factors that can wither and burn up vegetation. Moreover, the combination of them, as represented by concurrences of low relative humidity, high temperature, and high wind speed, can lead to even higher impacts on agricultural production or wildfires, which is still under-assessed. Here we investigate spatial pattern of and changes in the compound dry-hot-windy (DHW) events in historical periods (1951–2014) and future periods (2037–2100) across global areas (including crop regions and burned areas) based on the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) and climate model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6). An increase in the likelihood (or frequency) of compound DHW events is observed in historical periods and can be even higher in the future across global land areas. Specifically, the projected frequency of compound DHW events in the future period under the SSP585 scenario nearly triples the value in historical periods. Moreover, the increase in compound DHW events is also projected in ten main wheat exporters, in particular for Europe, Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil. Over global burn areas, the higher risk of compound DHW events during fire seasons is also projected in the future. Findings from this study can be useful for agricultural planning and natural resources management under a changing climate.