Fernando Martin Mayoral, Carlos Andrés Rivera Lasso
{"title":"From Conflict to Prosperity: The Economic Impact of the Colombian Peace Agreements","authors":"Fernando Martin Mayoral, Carlos Andrés Rivera Lasso","doi":"10.1002/jid.3981","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>The peace negotiations between the FARC-EP and the Colombian government from 2013 to 2016 aimed to end years of violence, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure and social fragmentation. This study uses the synthetic control method to analyse the impact on Colombia's real GDP per capita growth, controlling for economic, demographic and institutional aspects. The main results show that since 2014, Colombia has experienced a higher growth rate than its synthetic counterpart, reflecting a permanent change in the expectations of economic agents since the beginning of the peace process.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":47986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Development","volume":"37 3","pages":"758-772"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Development","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3981","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
The peace negotiations between the FARC-EP and the Colombian government from 2013 to 2016 aimed to end years of violence, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure and social fragmentation. This study uses the synthetic control method to analyse the impact on Colombia's real GDP per capita growth, controlling for economic, demographic and institutional aspects. The main results show that since 2014, Colombia has experienced a higher growth rate than its synthetic counterpart, reflecting a permanent change in the expectations of economic agents since the beginning of the peace process.
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The Journal aims to publish the best research on international development issues in a form that is accessible to practitioners and policy-makers as well as to an academic audience. The main focus is on the social sciences - economics, politics, international relations, sociology and anthropology, as well as development studies - but we also welcome articles that blend the natural and social sciences in addressing the challenges for development. The Journal does not represent any particular school, analytical technique or methodological approach, but aims to publish high quality contributions to ideas, frameworks, policy and practice, including in transitional countries and underdeveloped areas of the Global North as well as the Global South.
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