Green Hydrogen Economy: Scenarios versus Technologies

Abstract

Green hydrogen is anticipated to be instrumental in decarbonizing sectors that are challenging to electrify and in facilitating the storage and distribution of renewable energy. While technological advancements in water electrolysis have been extensively researched, the impact of operational scenarios on the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is less explored. Here, we exhaustively assessed all operational scenarios─varying electricity supply (grid-connected vs off-grid), battery storage inclusion, utilization rates, and maintenance strategies─and calculated their LCOH via techno-economic analyses. Our findings reveal that operational scenarios can reduce LCOH more significantly than technological improvements alone. Historical trends in LCOH indicate that lower off-grid renewable electricity costs are pivotal in decreasing production expenses, whereas electrolysis efficiencies remain relatively constant. Scenarios employing off-grid renewable energy without battery storage, coupled with low-capital-expenditure electrolyzers and optimized maintenance, offer the greatest cost benefits. This framework provides a basis for green hydrogen system design, highlighting the critical role of operational optimization in accelerating cost-effective deployment.