Supply chain upstream shocks and downstream concentration in the new energy sector: Balancing diversification and centralization

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-15 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108510

Yuhao Wang , Pengfei Cheng

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Abstract

The rapid growth of the global new energy sector requires balancing supply chain diversification and centralization to manage policy uncertainty and market volatility. Using data from China's A-share listed new energy firms (2005–2022), this study finds that (1) upstream firms' perceptions of economic policy uncertainty significantly reduce downstream supply chain concentration, driving firms to adopt diversification strategies to mitigate risks; (2) mechanism analysis shows that risk tolerance and digital transformation amplify this effect, while cost control and innovation alleviate it; (3) further analysis reveals significant dynamic effects—firms initially diversify in response to short-term shocks but adjust strategies over time to balance efficiency and flexibility as uncertainty persists. Moreover, geopolitical risks intensify the diversification effects of policy uncertainty by increasing supply chain instability; (4) heterogeneity analysis highlights regional differences, ownership structures, and industry characteristics as key factors shaping supply chain adjustments. This research offers valuable guidance for resource-dependent industries to enhance resilience and support sustainable development amid global energy transitions.

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新能源领域供应链上游冲击与下游集中化：多元化与集中化的平衡

全球新能源行业的快速发展需要平衡供应链的多元化和集中化，以应对政策的不确定性和市场的波动。利用2005-2022年中国a股上市新能源企业的数据，研究发现：(1)上游企业对经济政策不确定性的感知显著降低了下游供应链集中度，促使企业采取多元化策略来降低风险；(2)机制分析表明，风险承受能力和数字化转型放大了这一效应，成本控制和创新则缓解了这一效应；(3)进一步的分析揭示了显著的动态效应——企业最初为应对短期冲击而采取多样化策略，但随着时间的推移，随着不确定性的持续，企业会调整策略以平衡效率和灵活性。此外，地缘政治风险通过增加供应链不稳定性，强化了政策不确定性的多元化效应；(4)异质性分析表明，区域差异、股权结构和行业特征是影响供应链调整的关键因素。该研究为资源依赖型产业在全球能源转型背景下增强弹性和支持可持续发展提供了有价值的指导。

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.