Corporate excess cash, economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107460

WenXue Zhang , Yuhao Tian , Zeyu Zhu

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Based on data from non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets from 2010 to 2023, this paper systematically explores the impact of corporate excess cash holdings on stock price crash risk and its underlying mechanisms. The study finds a significant positive correlation between corporate excess cash and stock price crash risk, suggesting that excess cash may increase stock price volatility by exacerbating agency problems. Further analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty plays a moderating role in this process: when uncertainty rises, it suppresses the aggravating effect of excess cash on stock price crash risk, highlighting the partial offsetting effect of precautionary demand on agency problems. Heterogeneity analysis shows that CEO duality significantly weakens the positive relationship between excess cash and stock price crash risk, indicating that improvements in internal governance structures can mitigate agency conflicts.

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企业现金过剩、经济政策不确定性和股价崩盘风险

本文基于2010 - 2023年沪深a股非金融类上市公司数据，系统探讨了企业超额现金持有量对股价崩盘风险的影响及其机制。研究发现企业现金过剩与股价崩盘风险之间存在显著的正相关关系，表明现金过剩可能通过加剧代理问题而增加股价波动。进一步分析发现，经济政策的不确定性在这一过程中起到了调节作用：当不确定性上升时，它抑制了过剩现金对股价崩盘风险的加剧作用，突出了预防性需求对代理问题的部分抵消作用。异质性分析表明，CEO二元性显著削弱了过剩现金与股价崩盘风险之间的正相关关系，表明内部治理结构的改善可以缓解代理冲突。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance