Spatiotemporal activity characteristic analysis and hazard assessment of rainfall-induced landslide for the Eurasian continent by considering mountain-hazards developing environment differences

IF 4.2 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI:10.1007/s10064-025-04259-2
Deqiang Cheng, Javed Iqbal, Chunliu Gao
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Abstract

Landslides often pose a huge threat to the lives and property of people. The detailed analysis of landslide activity characteristics and landslide hazard assessment can help to understand the activity laws of landslides, and identify the possibility of landslide occurrence, which play a key role to take necessary disaster prevention and mitigation measures. In this research, we selected Eurasia as the study area. Firstly, a landslide dataset of the Eurasian continent was analyzed. Based on the Emerging Hot Spot Analysis, obvious hot spots of landslide hazards around the Himalayan Mountains and new cold spots in the Loess Plateau were found. On the other hand, for large scale regions, there are significant differences in landslide-developing environments, and the effects of various causing factors are different significantly. In this research, the weights of landslide-causing factors for different kinds of mountain-hazards developing environments were obtained through the machine learning method (Random Forest). Different landslide hazard assessment models under different mountain-hazards developing Environments were constructed. It solves the problem of using only one model to evaluate landslide hazard in complex disaster environments at a large regional scale without considering regional differences. This also provides a new idea for evaluating the hazard assessment of other mountain hazards at a large regional scale. The results show that the landslide hazard assessment model has obvious regional characteristics and can better realize the purpose of hazard assessment. About 16.35% of the mountain areas in the Eurasian continent belong to very high-hazard and high-hazard areas of landslides. At the same time, the contribution values of different factors in the calculation process based on the hazard assessment models can better identify the main controlling factors and propose the adoption of more targeted disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

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考虑山地灾害发展环境差异的欧亚大陆降雨诱发滑坡时空活动特征分析及危险性评价
滑坡往往对人们的生命财产安全构成巨大威胁。通过对滑坡活动特征的详细分析和滑坡灾害评估,有助于了解滑坡的活动规律,识别滑坡发生的可能性,为采取必要的防灾减灾措施起到关键作用。本研究选择欧亚大陆作为研究区域。首先,分析了欧亚大陆的滑坡数据集。根据新兴热点分析,发现了喜马拉雅山脉周围明显的滑坡灾害热点和黄土高原的新冷点。另一方面,对于大尺度区域,滑坡发生环境存在显著差异,各种致灾因子的影响也有明显不同。本研究通过机器学习方法(随机森林)获得了不同类型山地灾害发育环境下滑坡致灾因子的权重。构建了不同山地灾害发育环境下的滑坡灾害评估模型。这解决了在大区域范围内仅用一种模型评价复杂灾害环境下滑坡灾害而不考虑区域差异的问题。这也为在大区域范围内评估其他山地灾害的危害评估提供了新思路。结果表明,滑坡灾害评估模型具有明显的区域特征,能较好地实现灾害评估的目的。欧亚大陆约有 16.35%的山区属于滑坡极高危害区和高危害区。同时,根据灾害评估模型计算过程中不同因素的贡献值,可以更好地确定主要控制因素,提出更有针对性的防灾减灾措施。
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来源期刊
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 工程技术-地球科学综合
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
11.90%
发文量
445
审稿时长
4.1 months
期刊介绍: Engineering geology is defined in the statutes of the IAEG as the science devoted to the investigation, study and solution of engineering and environmental problems which may arise as the result of the interaction between geology and the works or activities of man, as well as of the prediction of and development of measures for the prevention or remediation of geological hazards. Engineering geology embraces: • the applications/implications of the geomorphology, structural geology, and hydrogeological conditions of geological formations; • the characterisation of the mineralogical, physico-geomechanical, chemical and hydraulic properties of all earth materials involved in construction, resource recovery and environmental change; • the assessment of the mechanical and hydrological behaviour of soil and rock masses; • the prediction of changes to the above properties with time; • the determination of the parameters to be considered in the stability analysis of engineering works and earth masses.
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