[Estimation of AIDS morbidity and mortality in Spain].

Abstract

Background: To obtain corrected estimates of the cumulative incidence and mortality, as well as prevalence of AIDS in Spain on June 1992.

Methods: The number of cases in the National Register of AIDS by December 1992 was adjusted for reporting delays to estimate the cumulative incidence by June 1992. The prevalence and mortality in this date were obtained using this figure and the probabilities of survival after diagnosis from the AIDS Register of Madrid. This methodology was used for Spain as all, and for each Autonomous Community.

Results: The estimated cumulative incidence of AIDS in Spain by June 1992 was 16,486 cases, 13.4% greater than that reported by the same date. The prevalent cases were 6,351 (95% CI, 5,996-6,708) and the remaining 10,135 (61.5%) would have died. This number of deaths is 69.6% greater than the reported figure. There were considerable differences among Autonomous Communities. Some of them exhibited rates more than six times greater than others.

Conclusions: The adjusted estimations provide a view of the actual situation more accurate than the raw figures from the register. These great differences should be taken into account for appropriate allocation of health care resources.