[Lung cancer mortality trends in Asturias (1976-1989)].

Abstract

Background: The Trend of lung cancer mortality rates in Asturias during 14 years is studied in order to know whether it shows the same change pattern described for other countries.

Methods: With this purpose, a graphic study of adjusted and age specific rates, including and analysis of birth cohorts, is carried out, and the change average percentage per year and the sex ratio are calculated.

Results: In men, the continuous increase of mortality stands out (change average percentage per year of age adjusted rates of 4.83%) with the only exception of the age group of 45-54 years, which had a variation per year of 1.90%, whereas in women, an overall decrease (-1.18 %) was observed, with the exception of women older than 74 years, who showed an increase of 1.73% per year. In men, the cohorts analysis showed on increasing cohort effect in all generations and a decreasing effect in some women.

Conclusions: Lung cancer will probably go on increasing in Asturias in the next years, among men, whereas in women, it seems that a generalized decrease has been initiated, mainly in the youngest ones and the, increase, observed in other countries in previous years, is not evident. Additional studies, focused on the reasons for these trends, will be necessary and basically the following up of the evolution in men of 45-54 years, whose incipient decrease may indicate a change of trend, which facilitates hypothesis generation and verification.