Mathematical model for the AIDS epidemic's evolution in Romania.

Abstract

The individuals are distributed in 9 risk groups (adults and children), in which an HIV transmission way is predominant. Taking into account a simplified graph of the HIV infection evolution, kinetic equations for the number of individuals from each risk group--situated in various stages of HIV infection--are written. The approximative solutions of these equations give us: the characteristic exponents of the temporal evolutions of the main and secondary local epidemics; the ratios Ci/Bi and Di/Bi of asymptomatically contaminated and dead (as consequence of AIDS)--versus symptomatically contaminated; the onset of local epidemics in various risk groups; the relative amplitude of the secondary local epidemics versus the main local ones.