[[A dynamic model for populations reproduced by first marriage]].

Abstract

Using data for Japan, the author analyzes "the effect of nuptiality and of marital fertility [on population trends and constructs] a population model in which childbearing occurs only within first marriage....First, we can prove that...we can construct a stable population theory based on nuptiality and marital fertility....Next..., we investigate the effect of [the age shift in first marriage patterns on total fertility rates], since delay of marriage has been thought to be one of [the] major causes for long-term fertility decline in Japan. We conclude that although [the age shift in first marriage patterns] could decrease Japanese fertility, its effect seems to be insufficient to induce such rapid fertility decline as is observed recently in Japan." (SUMMARY IN ENG)