[Trend analysis for interprefectural migration in Japan, 1954-1993].

Abstract

"In this paper, our main aim is to examine long-term trends of Japanese interprefectural migration after the War by using a Markov migration model.... We observed dependence of in- and out-migration on the size of populations by prefecture.... Major findings based on the time-series observation of stationary distributions by year are as follows: First from [the 1950s] to 1970 migrants tended to concentrate [on] densely populated industrialized prefectures (Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi), but after that during [the 1970s] populations have redistributed to provincial prefectures. Reconcentration of population to [the] Tokyo area again occurred around [the mid-1980s, but] it ceased at the beginning of the [1990s] in accordance with economic recession.... It can be concluded that [the] recent Japanese interprefectural migration system has lost its potential power to redistribute populations." (SUMMARY IN ENG)