Simulating alternative social security responses to the demographic transition.

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE National Tax Journal Pub Date : 1985-06-01

A J Auerbach, L J Kotlikoff

引用次数: 0

Abstract

"This paper uses a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model to examine the dynamic economic effects of baby 'booms' and baby 'busts' as well as the interaction of such demographic changes with social security policy. Demographic change can have sizeable short and long-run effects on saving rates and factors returns." The geographic focus is on the United States. "The model predicts long-run improvement in welfare associated with a prolonged baby bust. This improvement holds even in the absence of accommodating social security policy. It reflects a long-run decline in the dependency ratio, with the reduction in dependent children per worker more than offsetting the increase in retirees per worker."

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模拟针对人口结构转变的社会保障对策。

“本文使用完美预见生命周期模拟模型来研究婴儿'繁荣'和'萧条'的动态经济影响以及这种人口变化与社会保障政策的相互作用。人口结构变化会对储蓄率和要素回报率产生相当大的短期和长期影响。”地理上的重点是美国。该模型预测，长期的福利改善与生育低谷期的延长有关。即使在没有适应社会保障政策的情况下，这种改善仍然存在。它反映了抚养比率的长期下降，每个工人受抚养子女数量的减少远远抵消了每个工人退休人员数量的增加。”

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

National Tax Journal Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the National Tax Journal (NTJ) is to encourage and disseminate high quality original research on governmental tax and expenditure policies. Articles published in the regular March, June and September issues of the journal, as well as articles accepted for publication in special issues of the journal, are subject to professional peer review and include economic, theoretical, and empirical analyses of tax and expenditure issues with an emphasis on policy implications. The NTJ has been published quarterly since 1948 under the auspices of the National Tax Association (NTA). Most issues include an NTJ Forum, which consists of invited papers by leading scholars that examine in depth a single current tax or expenditure policy issue. The December issue is devoted to publishing papers presented at the NTA’s annual Spring Symposium; the articles in the December issue generally are not subject to peer review.