Estimation of mean age at first marriage: use of a simple mathematical model.

Rural demography Pub Date : 1984-01-01
M N Islam
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Abstract

"The present paper is an attempt to introduce a simple mathematical model to describe the age pattern of proportion never married women. The underlying model was found to give fairly close fit to an observed set of data of some 17 WFS [World Fertility Survey] countries. A mathematical formulation was then suggested in terms of the parameters in the model to estimate the mean age at first marriage. The mean ages obtained under the approach agreed quite closely with those obtained by Hajnal's method. The agreement between the estimates of ever married proportions obtained by the suggested model and...Coale's nuptiality model appeared also to be satisfactory."

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初婚平均年龄的估计:使用一个简单的数学模型。
“本文试图引入一个简单的数学模型来描述未婚女性的年龄比例模式。人们发现,基础模型与大约17个世界生育调查国家的一组观测数据相当接近。然后,根据模型中的参数,提出了一个数学公式来估计初婚的平均年龄。用这种方法得到的平均年龄与Hajnal方法得到的年龄相当接近。所建议的模型所获得的未婚比例估计值与…科尔的婚姻模式似乎也令人满意。”
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