[Simulation of possible developments in urbanization in the German Democratic Republic by the use of a multi-regional population model].

Abstract

An attempt is made to forecast likely trends in urbanization in the German Democratic Republic over the next 50 years using the multi-regional approach developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. "Three scenarios describe possible variants in the changes of fertility, mortality and interregional migration as demographic factors. The term 'region' is applied to 4 sizes of communities each grouped as rural communities, small towns, small medium-size towns, and large medium-size towns/large towns. The results of the simulation indicate for all three scenarios an absolute and relative decline in population of the rural communities and a continuation of the process of concentration among the population." (summary in ENG, RUS)