Do women forget their births? A study of maternity histories in a rural area of Senegal (Niakhar).

M Garenne
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Abstract

5068 maternity histories were recorded among women aged 15-89 years in a rural area of Senegal. The quality of the estimates of fertility, child mortality, and perinatal mortality was analyzed for consistency. There was no evidence of any major underreporting of births, deaths, or still births according to age, even among the oldest women. Estimates were compared with comparable values derived from a longitudinal demographic surveillance system (DSS) in the same area. The age patterns of cumulated fertility and mortality derived from the maternity histories were consistent with those of the DSS. Differences in the levels of fertility and mortality with respect to the longitudinal records could be explained by small differences within the selected villages, by selection biases, and by recent trends in demographic parameters. Values of perinatal mortality were also equivalent to those recorded by the DSS. Women did not seem to forget their births to an extent large enough to produce strong biases, even at older ages. However, an analysis of differences by field workers revealed that some 2% of the births and 4% of the deaths may have been omitted, which gives an idea of the potential accuracy of maternity histories for the estimation of fertility and mortality levels.

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女人会忘记自己的出生吗?塞内加尔(Niakhar)农村地区产妇史研究。
在塞内加尔农村地区记录了5068名15-89岁妇女的生育史。对生育率、儿童死亡率和围产期死亡率的估计质量进行一致性分析。没有证据表明,即使在最年长的妇女中,也没有按年龄严重少报出生、死亡或死产的情况。将估计数与同一地区纵向人口监测系统(DSS)得出的可比值进行比较。从生育史中得出的累积生育率和死亡率的年龄模式与DSS的结果一致。与纵向记录相比,生育率和死亡率水平的差异可以用选定村庄内部的微小差异、选择偏差和人口参数的最近趋势来解释。围产期死亡率的数值也与人口普查所记录的数值相同。女性似乎并没有忘记自己的出生到足以产生强烈偏见的程度,即使是在年龄较大的时候。然而,实地工作人员对差异进行的分析显示,大约2%的出生人数和4%的死亡人数可能被遗漏,这使人们对估计生育率和死亡率水平的产妇历史的潜在准确性有所了解。
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