Systematic review of the use and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery.

Journal of public health medicine Pub Date : 2003-12-01 DOI:10.1093/pubmed/fdg075

David Fone, Sandra Hollinghurst, Mark Temple, Alison Round, Nathan Lester, Alison Weightman, Katherine Roberts, Edward Coyle, Gwyn Bevan, Stephen Palmer

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引用次数: 565

Abstract

Background: The objective of the review was to evaluate the extent, quality and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery.

Methods: A narrative systematic review was carried out of world literature from 1980 to 1999, searching Medline, INSPEC, Embase, HealthSTAR, Science Citation Index, CINAHL, MathSci, INFORMS Online and SIGLE databases, and researchers in the field were contacted. Papers were included if they contained a computer simulation model of individuals in a stochastic system and the topic or setting related to population health or health service delivery.

Results: A total of 182 papers met the inclusion criteria. Simulation modelling has been undertaken in a wide range of health care topic areas, including hospital scheduling and organization, communicable disease, screening, costs of illness and economic evaluation. However, the quality of published papers was variable and few reported on the outcomes of implementation of models, so that the value of modelling could not be assessed.

Conclusion: Simulation modelling is a powerful method for modelling both small and large populations to inform policy makers in the provision of health care. It has been applied to a wide variety of health care problems. Although the number of modelling papers has grown substantially over recent years, further research is required to assess the value of modelling.

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系统回顾计算机模拟建模在人口健康和卫生保健服务中的应用和价值。

背景:本综述的目的是评价计算机模拟建模在人口健康和卫生保健服务中的范围、质量和价值。方法:检索Medline、INSPEC、Embase、HealthSTAR、Science Citation Index、CINAHL、MathSci、INFORMS Online和SIGLE数据库，对1980 ~ 1999年的世界文献进行叙述性系统综述。如果论文包含随机系统中个人的计算机模拟模型以及与人口健康或卫生服务提供相关的主题或设置，则纳入。结果:182篇论文符合纳入标准。仿真建模已在广泛的卫生保健主题领域进行，包括医院调度和组织、传染病、筛查、疾病成本和经济评估。然而，已发表论文的质量参差不齐，而且很少报道模型实施的结果，因此无法评估模型的价值。结论:模拟建模是一种强大的方法，可以为小型和大型人群建模，从而为决策者提供卫生保健服务。它已被广泛应用于各种卫生保健问题。虽然近年来建模论文的数量大幅增加，但需要进一步的研究来评估建模的价值。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Journal of public health medicine

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