Expected increase in prevalence of HCV-related cirrhosis and its complications in the United States: No effect of current antiviral treatment coverage?

Abstract

Davis et al. projected the future prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and its complications in the United States, using a multicohort natural history model with a tree model. First, the model predicted that in 2010 many patients have already progressed to F4, including to decompensanted cirrhosis and HCC. Second, the model emphasized that cirrhosis and its complications are most common after 60 years old, regardless of when the infection occurred. Finally, the model showed that current treatment patterns will have little effect on the incidence of the complications hepatitis C.