[Trends and predictions of tuberculosis, and challenges towards tuberculosis eradication in Havana City].

Abstract

Objectives: To describe the variation and the trend of new tuberculosis case reports in Havana from 1995 to 2010, as well as their projection and occurrence for 2011-2013.

Methods: A time series study was conducted, and the annual total and mean variation percentages of rates by clinical and bacteriological categories, age, municipal distribution and TB/HIV co-infection were analyzed. Estimation of projections by using two-parameter exponential smoothing techniques was made.

Results: The rate of new reported TB cases decreased from 16.8 in 1995 to 9.5 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2010 (43.5% and 2.9% of annual total variation and mean variation respectively). The rate declined by 80% in the municipalities and in 15-64 and > or = 65 years age groups. Habana Vieja and Centro Habana municipalities kept the highest rates throughout the whole period. TB/HIV coinfection notification increased from 3 out of 369 (0.8%) cases in 1995 to 37 out of 202 (18.3%) cases in 2010. A slight increase was estimated for the 2011-2013 period (9.5; 10.0; 10.5 per 100 000 population respectively) in addition to continuous rise of the number of cases with TB/HIV co-infection.

Conclusions: The TB trend showed a steady decline in Havana from 1995 to 2010, with substantial reduction in the study period, except for TB/HIV co-infection in which the number of cases increases. The TB case report rates are within the expected values, although slightly above the predictions.