Microcap pharmaceutical firms: linking drug pipelines to market value.

Abstract

This article examines predictors of the future market value of microcap pharmaceutical companies. This is problematic since the large majority of these firms seldom report positive net income. Their value comes from the potential of a liquidity event such as occurs when a key drug is approved by the FDA. The typical scenario is one in which the company is either acquired by a larger pharmaceutical firm or enters into a joint venture with another pharmaceutical firm. Binary logistic regression is used to determine the impact of the firm's drug treatment pipeline and its investment in research and development on the firm's market cap. Using annual financial data from 2007 through 2010, this study finds that the status of the firm's drug treatment pipeline and its research and development expenses are significant predictors of the firm's future stock value relative to other microcap pharmaceutical firms.