[EXPERIMENTAL GROUNDS ON POSSIBILITY TO MAKE AND TO USE PREDICTION MODELS OF PESTICIDES DESIGN STANDARD IN THE WATER OF PONDS USED FOR HOUSEHOLD AND DRINKING WATER SUPPLY].

Abstract

Taking into account the fact that current calculation methods for substantiation of standards in the water of water reservoirs valid in Ukraine are outdated the aim of our research was to scientifically substantiate the possibility to make and to use prediction models of pesticides design standard in the water of ponds used for household and drinking water supply. Array of experimentally substantiated and approved to use in Ukraine maximum allowable concentrations (MAC) of organic pesticides active ingredients in the water was analyzed (n = 201). Analysis of dependence between MAC value of pesticides in the water and its physical and chemical properties, indices of ecotoxicological hazard and persistency in the water was carried out using correlation and regression analysis methods. Twelve regression equations to establish design value of pesticides MAC in the water were proposed on the grounds of performed analysis. The results of reliability testing of proposed procedure on pesticides design tentatively allowable levels (TAL) in the water indicate on needs to apply the least value of TAL obtained in the process of calculations using proposed equations. It was proved that mathematical models proposed for prediction of pesticide design standard in the water are adequate and significant by Fisher's test (P < 0.05). Proposed algorithm allows considerably simplify procedure of obtaining temporary hygienic standard in the water for new pesticides.