Quantifying the role of social distancing, personal protection and case detection in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak in Ontario, Canada.

Abstract

Public health interventions have been implemented to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Ontario, Canada; however, the quantification of their effectiveness remains to be done and is important to determine if some of the social distancing measures can be relaxed without resulting in a second wave. We aim to equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with mathematical model-based quantification of implemented public health measures and estimation of the trend of COVID-19 in Ontario to inform future actions in terms of outbreak control and de-escalation of social distancing. Our estimates confirm that (1) social distancing measures have helped mitigate transmission by reducing daily infection contact rate, but the disease transmission probability per contact remains as high as 0.145 and case detection rate was so low that the effective reproduction number remained higher than the threshold for disease control until the closure of non-essential business in the Province; (2) improvement in case detection rate and closure of non-essential business had resulted in further reduction of the effective control number to under the threshold. We predict the number of confirmed cases according to different control efficacies including a combination of reducing further contact rates and transmission probability per contact. We show that improved case detection rate plays a decisive role to reduce the effective reproduction number, and there is still much room in terms of improving personal protection measures to compensate for the strict social distancing measures.