What can we learn from previous pandemics to reduce the frequency of emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19?

Q1 Social Sciences Global Transitions Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.glt.2020.09.003
S. Lakshmi Priyadarsini , M. Suresh , Donald Huisingh
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引用次数: 54

Abstract

The global risks report of 2020 stated, climate-related issues dominate all of the top-five long-term critical global risks burning the planet and according to the report, “as existing health risks resurge and new ones emerge, humanity’s past successes in overcoming health challenges are no guarantee of future results.” Over the last few decades, the world has experienced several pandemic outbreaks of various pathogens and the frequency of the emergence of novel strains of infectious organisms has increased in recent decades. As per expert opinion, rapidly mutating viruses, emergence and re-emergence of epidemics with increasing frequencies, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be increasing over the years and the trends will continue and intensify. Susceptible disease hosts, anthropogenic activities and environmental changes contribute and trigger the ‘adaptive evolution’ of infectious agents to thrive and spread into different ecological niches and to adapt to new hosts. The overarching objective of this paper is to provide insight into the human actions which should be strictly regulated to help to sustain life on earth. To identify and categorize the triggering factors that contribute to disease ecology, especially repeated emergence of disease pandemics, a theory building approach, ‘Total Interpretive Structural Modeling’ (TISM) was used; also the tool, ‘Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification’ analysis (MICMAC) was applied to rank the risk factors based on their impacts on other factors and on the interdependence among them. This mathematical modeling tool clearly explains the strength, position and interconnectedness of each anthropogenic factor that contributes to the evolution of pathogens and to the frequent emergence of pandemics which needs to be addressed with immediate priority. As we are least prepared for another pandemic outbreak, significant policy attention must be focused on the causative factors to limit emerging outbreaks like COVID 19 in the future.

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我们可以从以往的大流行中学到什么,以减少COVID-19等新发传染病的发生频率?
《2020年全球风险报告》指出,与气候相关的问题在燃烧地球的五大长期重大全球风险中占主导地位,报告称,“随着现有健康风险的重新出现和新的健康风险的出现,人类过去在克服健康挑战方面的成功并不能保证未来的结果。”在过去几十年里,世界经历了几次各种病原体大流行的爆发,近几十年来出现新型传染性生物菌株的频率有所增加。根据专家的意见,病毒迅速变异、流行病的出现和再次出现的频率越来越高、对气候敏感的病媒传播疾病很可能在今后几年不断增加,而且这种趋势将继续并加剧。易感疾病宿主、人为活动和环境变化有助于并触发传染因子的“适应性进化”,使其茁壮成长并传播到不同的生态位,并适应新的宿主。本文的首要目标是提供对人类行为的洞察,这些行为应该被严格监管,以帮助维持地球上的生命。为了识别和分类导致疾病生态学的触发因素,特别是疾病大流行的反复出现,采用了一种理论构建方法,即“总解释结构模型”(Total Interpretive Structural Modeling, TISM);此外,“影响矩阵交叉参考乘法应用于分类”分析工具(MICMAC)也被应用于根据风险因素对其他因素的影响以及它们之间的相互依赖性对风险因素进行排名。这一数学建模工具清楚地解释了导致病原体进化和流行病频繁出现的每个人为因素的强度、地位和相互联系,这些因素需要立即优先处理。由于我们对另一场大流行的爆发准备不足,因此必须将政策重点放在限制未来新出现的COVID - 19等疫情的致病因素上。
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来源期刊
Global Transitions
Global Transitions Social Sciences-Development
CiteScore
18.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
1
审稿时长
20 weeks
期刊最新文献
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