Amit Garg, Sarah Reddy, Joslyn Kirby, Andrew Strunk
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引用次数: 2
Abstract
Background: A clinical decision support tool may improve recognition of hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) and reduce diagnosis delay.
Objective: To develop and initially validate a clinical decision support to predict diagnosis of HS and distinguish it from cutaneous abscess of the axilla, groin, perineum, and buttock.
Methods: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis between January 2012 and June 2017 (development set) and July 2017 and March 2019 (validation set). We used an electronic records sample of 56 million patients from the Explorys database to identify patients with an ambulatory visit associated with either HS or cutaneous of the axilla, groin, perineum, and buttock. The outcome was predicted probability of HS diagnosis.
Results: Development set included 7,974 patients with mean age of 41.4 years, who were predominantly female (66%) and white (62%). Validation set included 1,560 patients with similar demographic composition. Factors which were stronger independent predictors of HS included female sex (OR 2.17 [95% CI 1.96-2.40]); African American race (1.28 [95% CI 1.15-1.44]); increasing BMI (OR 1.05 [95% CI 1.05-1.06)]; history of acne (OR 3.46 [95% CI 2.83-4.23]); Down syndrome (OR 5.35 [95% CI 2.03-14.12]); and prescription for at least 7 opioid medications in the past year (OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.83-1.33]). Up to age 45 years, increasing age was a stronger predictor of HS diagnosis. The simplified model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.746 [SE 0.013]) and moderate calibration (calibration intercept -0.260 [SE 0.055]; calibration slope 1.142 [SE 0.076]).
Conclusion: This clinical decision support tool shows good performance in predicting diagnosis of HS and distinguishing it from cutaneous abscess that involves the axilla, groin, perineum, and buttock.
期刊介绍:
Published since 1893, ''Dermatology'' provides a worldwide survey of clinical and investigative dermatology. Original papers report clinical and laboratory findings. In order to inform readers of the implications of recent research, editorials and reviews prepared by invited, internationally recognized scientists are regularly featured. In addition to original papers, the journal publishes rapid communications, short communications, and letters to ''Dermatology''. ''Dermatology'' answers the complete information needs of practitioners concerned with progress in research related to skin, clinical dermatology and therapy. The journal enjoys a high scientific reputation with a continually increasing impact factor and an equally high circulation.