Modeling the Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya.

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kenya is presented. A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) compartment model is considered with additional compartments of hospitalized population whose condition is severe or critical and the fatality compartment. The basic reproduction number (R ₀) is computed by the next-generation matrix approach and later expressed as a time-dependent function so as to incorporate the NPIs into the model. The resulting system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is solved using fourth-order and fifth-order Runge-Kutta methods. Different intervention scenarios are considered, and the results show that implementation of closure of education institutions, curfew, and partial lockdown yields predicted delayed peaks of the overall infections, severe cases, and fatalities and subsequently containment of the pandemic in the country.