The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU.

IF 3.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Economic Inequality Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-06-01 DOI:10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8

Vanda Almeida, Salvador Barrios, Michael Christl, Silvia De Poli, Alberto Tumino, Wouter van der Wielen

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Abstract

This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households' disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from -9.3% to -4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8.

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COVID-19 对欧盟家庭收入的影响。

本分析利用欧盟委员会在 2019 年秋季和 2020 年春季发布的 2020 年经济预测，以及在不改变政策假设下的反事实，来分析 COVID-19 危机对欧盟家庭收入的影响。此外，我们的分析还评估了欧盟成员国酌情采取的财政政策措施的缓冲作用。我们发现，COVID-19 大流行可能会严重影响欧盟家庭的可支配收入，低收入家庭受到的冲击更为严重。然而，我们的结果表明，由于政策干预，预计危机的影响将类似于 2008-2009 年金融危机期间所经历的影响。具体而言，我们的结果表明，酌情采取的财政政策措施将发挥重要的缓冲作用，减少收入损失的规模（平均等值可支配收入从-9.3%降至-4.3%），降低其递减性，并减轻大流行病对贫困的影响。我们的结论是，政策干预有助于缓解危机对不平等和贫困的影响：在线版本包含补充材料，可查阅 10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Inequality ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Inequality provides a forum for analysis of ''economic inequality'', broadly defined. Its scope includes: · Theoretical and empirical analysis· Monetary measures of ''well-being'' such as earnings, income, consumption, and wealth; non-monetary measures such as educational achievement and health and health care; multidimensional measures· Inequality and poverty within and between countries, and globally, and their trends over time· Inequalities of opportunity· Income mobility and poverty persistence· The factor distribution of income· Differences in ''well-being'' between socioeconomic groups, for example between men and women, generations, or ethnic groups· The effects of inequality on macroeconomic and other phenomena, and vice versa· Related statistical methods and data issues · Related policy analysis Papers need to prioritize the ''economic inequality'' dimension. For example, papers about trade and inequality, or inequality and growth, should not primarily be about trade or growth (in which case they should target a different journal). The same is true for papers considering the inter-relationships between the income distribution and the labour market, public policy, or demography. Officially cited as: J Econ Inequal

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