Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales.

IF 1.2 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ECOLOGY Theoretical Ecology Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-05-27 DOI:10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w
Yun Tao, Jessica L Hite, Kevin D Lafferty, David J D Earn, Nita Bharti
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Abstract

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w.

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跨生态尺度的瞬时疾病动态。
瞬态动态分析对于了解传染病的传播和持续性至关重要。识别和预测从宿主内部到社区层面的各种规模的瞬态模式,在抗击当前流行病和降低未来爆发风险方面发挥着重要作用。此外,更加重视非症状过程将有助于及时评估野生动物和人类疾病,并改进监测工作、预防对策和干预策略。在此,我们将探讨瞬态分析在流行病学、运动生态学和寄生虫学等领域的最新模型中的贡献。除了在预测流行模式和地方性疫情爆发中的作用外,我们还探讨了瞬态在生态层次结构中不同尺度的病原体传播、抵抗和回避背景下的作用。举例说明:(i) 宿主个体水平上的瞬时移动动态如何随着时间的推移而改变传播事件的机会;(ii) 宿主内部的能量过程通常会导致免疫力、病原体负荷和传播潜力的瞬时动态;(iii) 离散种群之间的瞬时连通性对环境因素和疫情动态的响应会影响疾病在空间网络中的传播;(iv) 群落中物种丰富度的增加可为个体提供瞬时保护,使其免受感染。最终,我们认为瞬态分析为疾病研究提供了更深入的见解并提出了新的跨学科问题,从而扩大了动力学模型在疫情防备和管理方面的应用:在线版本包含补充材料,可查阅 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Theoretical Ecology
Theoretical Ecology 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
23
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Theoretical Ecology publishes innovative research in theoretical ecology, broadly defined. Papers should use theoretical approaches to answer questions of ecological interest and appeal to and be readable by a broad audience of ecologists. Work that uses mathematical, statistical, computational, or conceptual approaches is all welcomed, provided that the goal is to increase ecological understanding. Papers that only use existing approaches to analyze data, or are only mathematical analyses that do not further ecological understanding, are not appropriate. Work that bridges disciplinary boundaries, such as the intersection between quantitative social sciences and ecology, or physical influences on ecological processes, will also be particularly welcome. All areas of theoretical ecology, including ecophysiology, population ecology, behavioral ecology, evolutionary ecology, ecosystem ecology, community ecology, and ecosystem and landscape ecology are all appropriate. Theoretical papers that focus on applied ecological questions are also of particular interest.
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