Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil.

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-01-06 DOI:10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w

Luís Tarrataca, Claudia Mazza Dias, Diego Barreto Haddad, Edilson Fernandes De Arruda

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引用次数: 30

Abstract

The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w.

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曲线趋平:新冠肺炎防控策略在巴西的应用

当前的COVID-19大流行以不同的方式影响着不同的国家。各种各样的报告技术以及其他问题，如少报和预算限制，使得预测病毒的传播和致命性成为一项具有挑战性的任务。这项工作旨在更好地了解COVID-19将如何影响研究最少的国家之一，即巴西。目前，巴西的几个州处于封锁状态。然而，目前存在要求取消这类措施的政治压力。这项工作考虑了这种终止将对病毒如何在局部进化产生的影响。这是通过使用开/关策略扩展SEIR模型来完成的。考虑到SEIR的简单性，我们还试图通过开发神经回归器来获得更多的洞察力。我们选择使用当前临床研究已经确定的与COVID-19致命性有关的特征。我们将讨论如何处理这些数据以获得可靠的评估。补充信息:在线版本包含补充资料，下载地址:10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.

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