Structure of epidemic models: toward further applications in economics.

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-08-31 DOI:10.1007/s42973-021-00094-8
Toshikazu Kuniya
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

In this paper, we review the structure of various epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology for the future applications in economics. The heterogeneity of population and the generalization of nonlinear terms play important roles in making more elaborate and realistic models. The basic, effective, control and type reproduction numbers have been used to estimate the intensity of epidemic, to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions and to design appropriate interventions. The advanced epidemic models includes the age structure, seasonality, spatial diffusion, mutation and reinfection, and the theory of reproduction numbers has been generalized to them. In particular, the existence of sustained periodic solutions has attracted much interest because they can explain the recurrent waves of epidemic. Although the theory of epidemic models has been developed in decades and the development has been accelerated through COVID-19, it is still difficult to completely answer the uncertainty problem of epidemic models. We would have to mind that there is no single model that can solve all questions and build a scientific attitude to comprehensively understand the results obtained by various researchers from different backgrounds.

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流行病模型的结构:在经济学中的进一步应用。
本文综述了数学流行病学中各种流行病模型的结构,以供将来在经济学中的应用。人口的异质性和非线性项的泛化在建立更精细和真实的模型中起着重要作用。基本数、有效数、控制数和类型再生产数已用于估计流行病的强度、评价干预措施的有效性和设计适当的干预措施。先进的流行病模型包括年龄结构、季节性、空间扩散、突变和再感染,并将繁殖数理论推广到这些模型中。特别是,持续周期解的存在引起了极大的兴趣,因为它们可以解释流行病的周期性波动。虽然流行病模型理论已经发展了几十年,并通过COVID-19加速了发展,但仍然很难完全回答流行病模型的不确定性问题。我们必须记住,没有一个单一的模型可以解决所有的问题,并建立一种科学的态度来全面理解来自不同背景的各种研究人员所获得的结果。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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