Current and future trade in livestock products.

Abstract

Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure and to place new pressures on livestock-sector infrastructure and the delivery of veterinary services. This paper summarises current trade in meat and presents plausible projections for the future. It highlights the impact of animal disease on trade and considers the effect of ongoing disease outbreaks, particularly the outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19, on current and future trade dynamics. The authors analysed published statistics on the demand for, and international trade in, livestock products at national and regional levels and made projections of the same up to 2050, generated from an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system. The resulting analyses identified patterns of trade consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes and changing diets in developing countries. The analyses also pointed to slow expansion of livestock production, and the impacts of countries' disease status on livestock trade. For most of the livestock products analysed, economic model projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries. Marked increases in the trade in livestock products suggest a changing role for Veterinary Services in facilitating trade and extension in the years to come.