Mortality trends in chronic liver disease and cirrhosis from 1981 to 2015 in Taiwan.

IF 3.2 2区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI:10.1186/s12963-021-00269-w

Shih-Yung Su, Long-Teng Lee, Wen-Chung Lee

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Background: Globally, the morbidity and mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis are increasing. The National Viral Hepatitis Therapy Program in Taiwan was implemented in 2003, but evidence regarding the program's effect on the trends of mortality for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis is limited.

Methods: We analyzed mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis in Taiwan for the period from 1981 to 2015. An autoregressive age-period-cohort model was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects.

Results: Age-adjusted mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis all displayed a flat but variable trend from 1981 to 2004 and a decreasing trend thereafter for both sexes. The age-period-cohort model revealed differential age gradients between the two sexes; mortality rates in the oldest age group (90-94 years) were 12 and 66 times higher than those in the youngest age group (30-34 years) for men and women, respectively. The period effects indicated that mortality rates declined after 2004 in both sexes. Mortality rates decreased in men but increased in women in the 1891-1940 birth cohorts and increased in both sexes in the birth cohorts from 1950 onward.

Conclusions: The National Viral Hepatitis Therapy Program in Taiwan may have contributed to the decrease in mortality rates for chronic liver disease and cirrhosis in adulthood.

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1981 - 2015年台湾慢性肝病及肝硬化死亡率趋势

背景:在全球范围内，慢性肝病和肝硬化的发病率和死亡率正在上升。台湾于2003年实施了国家病毒性肝炎治疗计划，但有关该计划对慢性肝病和肝硬化死亡率趋势的影响的证据有限。方法:我们分析1981 - 2015年台湾慢性肝病和肝硬化的死亡率。使用自回归的年龄-时期-队列模型来估计年龄、时期和队列效应。结果:1981年至2004年，慢性肝病和肝硬化的年龄调整死亡率均呈平缓但可变的趋势，此后男女均呈下降趋势。年龄-时期-队列模型揭示了两性之间的年龄梯度差异;年龄最大年龄组(90-94岁)的男性和女性死亡率分别是年龄最小年龄组(30-34岁)的12倍和66倍。时期效应表明，2004年以后男女死亡率都有所下降。在1891-1940年的出生队列中，男性死亡率下降，但女性死亡率上升，从1950年开始，出生队列中男女死亡率都有所上升。结论:台湾的国家病毒性肝炎治疗计划可能有助于降低成人慢性肝病和肝硬化的死亡率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Population Health Metrics PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

6.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

29 weeks

期刊介绍： Population Health Metrics aims to advance the science of population health assessment, and welcomes papers relating to concepts, methods, ethics, applications, and summary measures of population health. The journal provides a unique platform for population health researchers to share their findings with the global community. We seek research that addresses the communication of population health measures and policy implications to stakeholders; this includes papers related to burden estimation and risk assessment, and research addressing population health across the full range of development. Population Health Metrics covers a broad range of topics encompassing health state measurement and valuation, summary measures of population health, descriptive epidemiology at the population level, burden of disease and injury analysis, disease and risk factor modeling for populations, and comparative assessment of risks to health at the population level. The journal is also interested in how to use and communicate indicators of population health to reduce disease burden, and the approaches for translating from indicators of population health to health-advancing actions. As a cross-cutting topic of importance, we are particularly interested in inequalities in population health and their measurement.