The impact of social distancing on community case count in the United States: Testing the efficacy of protection motivation theory during early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Abstract
Centuries of practice and an array of public health literature support social distancing (SD), or self-quarantine, as a valuable nonpharmaceutical intervention. To convince individuals to engage in behaviors that limit infection, public health professionals communicate risk and hazard based on application of protection motivation theory (PMT). The COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to explore the efficacy of PMT in the context of a novel coronavirus with unique public health implications. We test an integrative conceptual model of social distancing compliance in U.S. counties and examine the mediating impact of SD on community spread of infection. We find that PMT does impact individual behavior, observing that the proportion of vulnerable populations affects social distancing compliance. However, actions to protect individual health are made within the context of economic concerns and priorities. While results indicate that PMT influences behavior, the expected relationship between that behavior and spread of disease in the community is not found. We do not repudiate SD or the value of PMT, but we suggest that these results may indicate that communication of risk in the context of COVID-19 may need community, as well as individual, framing.
期刊介绍：
Scholarship on risk, hazards, and crises (emergencies, disasters, or public policy/organizational crises) has developed into mature and distinct fields of inquiry. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy (RHCPP) addresses the governance implications of the important questions raised for the respective fields. The relationships between risk, hazards, and crisis raise fundamental questions with broad social science and policy implications. During unstable situations of acute or chronic danger and substantial uncertainty (i.e. a crisis), important and deeply rooted societal institutions, norms, and values come into play. The purpose of RHCPP is to provide a forum for research and commentary that examines societies’ understanding of and measures to address risk,hazards, and crises, how public policies do and should address these concerns, and to what effect. The journal is explicitly designed to encourage a broad range of perspectives by integrating work from a variety of disciplines. The journal will look at social science theory and policy design across the spectrum of risks and crises — including natural and technological hazards, public health crises, terrorism, and societal and environmental disasters. Papers will analyze the ways societies deal with both unpredictable and predictable events as public policy questions, which include topics such as crisis governance, loss and liability, emergency response, agenda setting, and the social and cultural contexts in which hazards, risks and crises are perceived and defined. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy invites dialogue and is open to new approaches. We seek scholarly work that combines academic quality with practical relevance. We especially welcome authors writing on the governance of risk and crises to submit their manuscripts.
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