Analysing the impact of COVID-19 on urban transitions and urban-regional dynamics in Australia*

Abstract

In this paper, we draw on insights from economic theory on urban growth, large shocks and spatial dynamics to assess COVID-19 flow-on effects and potential disruptive legacy in urban-regional dynamics. Urban dynamics in Australia are assessed at national, regional and intra-urban scales. Long-term and short-term urban dynamics are analysed against random growth, locational fundamentals and increasing returns theories of urban growth and adjustment. A focus in Australia and elsewhere is the potential effect of COVID-19 on where people want to live, enabled in part by technological connectivity that releases some workers from proximity to work constraints when choosing a home. Our results suggest that urbanisation trends and adjustments to shocks differ for capital cities and noncapital cities. At the inter-regional migration level, Australia’s largest urban system, Sydney, is characterised by a cointegration relationship between outmigration and Sydney property prices relative to other housing markets. At finer spatial scales, COVID-19 had a negative impact on house prices within Sydney and may, for some micro-geographies and/or towns and regional centres, lead to significant change. However, typically this effect on houses (not units) began to dissipate in the period June-November 2020, when also controlling for housing policy pre- and post-COVID-19.