{"title":"Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries.","authors":"Viktar Dudzich","doi":"10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.</p>","PeriodicalId":46161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Economic Studies","volume":"64 3","pages":"384-416"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613727/pdf/","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Comparative Economic Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/11/25 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.
期刊介绍：
Comparative Economic Studies is a journal of the Association for Comparative Economic Studies (ACES). It aims to publish papers that address several objectives: that provide original political economy analysis from a comparative perspective, that are an accessible source for state-of-the-art comparative economics thinking, that encourage cross-fertilization of ideas, that debate directions for future research in comparative economics, and that can provide materials and insights that are relevant for teaching, public policy debate and the media. Comparative Economic Studies welcome both submissions that are explicitly comparative and case studies of single countries or regions. The journal is interested in papers that investigate how economic systems respond to economic transitions, crises and to structural change, brought about by globalization, demographics, institutions, technology, politics, and the environment. While maintaining its position as an important outlet for work on Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union, the scope of Comparative Economic Studies encompasses other areas as well (European Union, Asia, Latin America, and Africa).
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