{"title":"An interpretation of COVID-19 in Tokyo using a combination of SIR models.","authors":"Koichiro Maki","doi":"10.2183/pjab.98.006","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A year and a half has passed since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mathematical models to predict infection are expected and many studies have been conducted. In this study, a new interpretation was created that could reproduce the daily positive cases in Tokyo using only a simple SIR model. In addition, the data on the ratio of transfer to delta variants could also be simulated. It is anticipated that this interpretation will be a basis for the development of forecasting methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":20707,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences","volume":"98 2","pages":"87-92"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/d6/13/pjab-98-087.PMC8890995.pdf","citationCount":"5","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.98.006","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Abstract
A year and a half has passed since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mathematical models to predict infection are expected and many studies have been conducted. In this study, a new interpretation was created that could reproduce the daily positive cases in Tokyo using only a simple SIR model. In addition, the data on the ratio of transfer to delta variants could also be simulated. It is anticipated that this interpretation will be a basis for the development of forecasting methods.
期刊介绍：
The Proceedings of the Japan Academy Ser. B (PJA-B) is a scientific publication of the Japan Academy with a 90-year history, and covers all branches of natural sciences, except for mathematics, which is covered by the PJA-A. It is published ten times a year and is distributed widely throughout the world and can be read and obtained free of charge through the world wide web.
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