[Predictions of three mathematical models related with the COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy in Spain. June 2021.]

Abstract

The Ministry of Health has coordinated three studies that have estimated the impact of the COVID-19 Vaccination Strategy in Spain. The models aim to help how to establish priority population groups for vaccination, in an initial context of dose limitation. With the same epidemiological and vaccine information, the results of this three different mathematical models point in the same direction: combined with physical distancing, staggered vaccination, starting with the high risk groups, would prevent 60% of infections, 42% of hospitalizations and 60% of mortality in the population. These models, which can be adapted to the new available scientific evidence, are dynamic and powerful tools for the evaluation and adjustment of immunization programs, promoting research on this field, and helping to achieve more efficient results in health.