Prediction of the future flood severity in plain river network region based on numerical model: A case study

Abstract

Suzhou is one of China's most developed regions, located in the eastern part of the Yangtze Delta. Due to its location and river features, it may at a high risk of flood under the climate change background in the future. In order to investigate the flood response to the extreme scenario in this region, 1-D hydrodynamic model with real-time operations of sluices and pumps is established. The rain-runoff processes of the urban and rural areas are simulated by two lumped hydrologic models, respectively. Indicators for a quantitative assessment of the flood severity in this region are proposed. The results indicate that the existing flood control system could prevent the Suzhou Downtown from inundation in the future. The difficulty of draining the Taihu Lake floods should be given attention to avoid the flood hazard. The modelling approach based on the in-bank model and the evaluation parameters could be effective for the flood severity estimation in the plain river network catchment. The insights from this study of the possible future extreme flood events may assist the policy making and the flood control planning.