[Transmission dynamics and cost-effectiveness of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city].

Abstract

Control of human rabies in developing countries depends on prevention in dogs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost-saving potential for the public health sector of intervention to control rabies in animal-host reservoirs. An existing deterministic model was adapted to allow study of dog-to-human rabies transmission. Model parameters were fitted to data from routine weekly reports on the number of rabid dogs and human rabies exposures in N'Djamena, Chad. At the onset of study, the estimated effective reproductive ratio (Re) was 1.01 indicating stable low-level endemic rabies transmission. Simulations were performed to determine what effects mass vaccination and culling of dogs would have on the incidence of human rabies. Findings showed that a mass campaign allowing single parenteral vaccination of at least 70% of the canine population would be sufficient to interrupt transmission of rabies to humans for at least 6 years. The cost-effectiveness of mass dog vaccination was compared to that of "postexposure prophylaxis" (PEP) which would not reduce future human exposure. Results showed that a sustained 5-year PEP program together with a dog-vaccination campaign would be as cost-effective as PEP alone. Beyond a time-frame of 7 years, combining parenteral dog vaccination campaigns with human PEP appeared to be more cost-effective than human PEP alone.