Number needed to sacrifice: statistical taboo or decision-making tool?

Abstract

Unlabelled: The percentage that benefit from medical preventive measures is small but all are exposed to the risk of side effects so most of those harmed would never benefit from their use. There is no expression or acronym to describe the ratio of harm to benefit nor discussion of what level of harm is acceptable for what benefit. Here we describe the harm to benefit ratio (HBR) expressed as number harmed (H) for 100 to benefit (B) and calculated for commonly used medical interventions. For post TIA carotid endarterectomy the HBR is 25 (25 postoperative strokes or deaths are caused for 100 to be stroke free at 5 years); warfarin in atrial fibrillation in patients aged under 65 results in 400 intracerebral haemorrhages for every 100 saved from a thromboembolic event; fibrinolytic treatment for stroke causes 44 symptomatic intracranial haemorrhages for every 100 that have minimal disability at 3 months; aspirin in high risk patients causes 33 major bleeds for every 100 occlusive vascular events prevented; routine inpatient thromboprophylaxis causes 133 additional bleeds for every 100 pulmonary emboli prevented; breast cancer screening causes 1000 unnecessary cancer treatments for 100 cancer deaths to be prevented.

Conclusion: The HBR or number needed to sacrifice is larger than most imagine. Its wider use would allow us better to recognise the number harmed, allow better informed consent, compare different preventive strategies and understand the risks as well as benefits of preventive treatments.