{"title":"The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020-31: A scenario approach.","authors":"Miguel González-Leonardo, Jeroen Spijker","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2022.2138521","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic's effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain's age structure.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2138521","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/11/15 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic's effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain's age structure.
期刊介绍:
For over half a century, Population Studies has reported significant advances in methods of demographic analysis, conceptual and mathematical theories of demographic dynamics and behaviour, and the use of these theories and methods to extend scientific knowledge and to inform policy and practice. The Journal"s coverage of this field is comprehensive: applications in developed and developing countries; historical and contemporary studies; quantitative and qualitative studies; analytical essays and reviews. The subjects of papers range from classical concerns, such as the determinants and consequences of population change, to such topics as family demography and evolutionary and genetic influences on demographic behaviour.