Mobile Phone-Based Population Flow Data for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China.

Health data science Pub Date : 2021-06-18 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI:10.34133/2021/9796431
Xin Lu, Jing Tan, Ziqiang Cao, Yiquan Xiong, Shuo Qin, Tong Wang, Chunrong Liu, Shiyao Huang, Wei Zhang, Laurie B Marczak, Simon I Hay, Lehana Thabane, Gordon H Guyatt, Xin Sun
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Abstract

Background: Human migration is one of the driving forces for amplifying localized infectious disease outbreaks into widespread epidemics. During the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the travels of the population from Wuhan have furthered the spread of the virus as the period coincided with the world's largest population movement to celebrate the Chinese New Year.

Methods: We have collected and made public an anonymous and aggregated mobility dataset extracted from mobile phones at the national level, describing the outflows of population travel from Wuhan. We evaluated the correlation between population movements and the virus spread by the dates when the number of diagnosed cases was documented.

Results: From Jan 1 to Jan 22 of 2020, a total of 20.2 million movements of at-risk population occurred from Wuhan to other regions in China. A large proportion of these movements occurred within Hubei province (84.5%), and a substantial increase of travels was observed even before the beginning of the official Chinese Spring Festival Travel. The outbound flows from Wuhan before the lockdown were found strongly correlated with the number of diagnosed cases in the destination cities (log-transformed).

Conclusions: The regions with the highest volume of receiving at-risk populations were identified. The movements of the at-risk population were strongly associated with the virus spread. These results together with province-by-province reports have been provided to governmental authorities to aid policy decisions at both the state and provincial levels. We believe that the effort in making this data available is extremely important for COVID-19 modelling and prediction.

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基于手机的中国大陆 COVID-19 疫情人口流动数据。
背景:人口迁移是将局部传染病疫情扩大为大范围流行病的驱动力之一。在中国 COVID-19 爆发期间,武汉人口的流动进一步加剧了病毒的传播,因为当时正值世界上最大的人口流动以庆祝春节:方法:我们收集并公布了全国范围内从手机中提取的匿名综合流动数据集,描述了武汉人口的外流情况。我们通过记录确诊病例数的日期来评估人口流动与病毒传播之间的相关性:从 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 1 月 22 日,共有 2020 万高危人群从武汉流向中国其他地区。这些流动人口中有很大一部分(84.5%)发生在湖北省内,甚至在中国官方春节旅游开始之前,流动人口就已大幅增加。封锁前武汉的出境流量与目的地城市的确诊病例数(对数变换)密切相关:结论:确定了接收高危人群最多的地区。高危人群的流动与病毒传播密切相关。这些结果以及各省的报告已提供给政府当局,以帮助州和省一级做出政策决定。我们认为,提供这些数据对于 COVID-19 的建模和预测极为重要。
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