HOW DOES THE LATENCY PERIOD IMPACT THE MODELING OF COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS?

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering Pub Date : 2022-03-30 Epub Date: 2022-02-20 DOI:10.5206/mase/14537
Ben Patterson, Jin Wang
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

We introduce two mathematical models based on systems of differential equations to investigate the relationship between the latency period and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We analyze the equilibrium and stability properties of these models, and perform an asymptotic study in terms of small and large latency periods. We fit the models to the COVID-19 data in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Our numerical results demonstrate the impact of the latency period on the dynamical behaviors of the solutions, on the value of the basic reproduction numbers, and on the accuracy of the model predictions.

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潜伏期如何影响COVID-19传播动力学建模?
我们引入两个基于微分方程组的数学模型,研究潜伏期与COVID-19传播动态之间的关系。我们分析了这些模型的平衡和稳定性,并在小潜伏期和大潜伏期方面进行了渐近研究。我们将这些模型与美国田纳西州的COVID-19数据拟合。我们的数值结果证明了潜伏期对解的动力学行为、对基本再现数的值以及对模型预测精度的影响。
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CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
21 weeks
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