Wastewater-based Epidemiology and SARS-CoV-2: Variant Trends in the Apulia Region (Southern Italy) and Effect of Some Environmental Parameters

IF 4.1 2区农林科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Food and Environmental Virology Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI:10.1007/s12560-023-09565-0

Francesco Triggiano, Osvalda De Giglio, Francesca Apollonio, Silvia Brigida, Fabrizio Fasano, Pamela Mancini, Giusy Bonanno Ferraro, Carolina Veneri, Giuseppina La Rosa, Elisabetta Suffredini, Luca Lucentini, Nicola Ungaro, Giuseppe Di Vittorio, Onofrio Mongelli, Nelhudoff Albano, Maria Teresa Montagna

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Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater monitoring has been used to monitor the levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA entering the sewerage system. In Italy, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità coordinated the SARI project (Sorveglianza Ambientale Reflue in Italia) to detect SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. In this study, the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in raw wastewater against COVID-19 cases was evaluated together with the effect of temperature and precipitation on virus spread. We validated a predictive model, proposed by De Giglio et al., 2021, to establish the number of COVID-19 cases/100,000 inhabitants. A receiver operating characteristic curve model was applied to predict the number of COVID-19 cases and Poisson regression was applied to study the effect of temperature and rainfall on viral load. In Apulia, from October 2021 to December 2022, we analyzed 1041 samples, of which 985 (94.6%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Median atmospheric temperature was inversely proportional to viral load in wastewater; no correlation was found with precipitation. The predictive model confirmed that at least 11 cases/100,000 inhabitants would occur in the 15 days following the detection of the virus in wastewater. Environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 can be used to map the virus and its variants.

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基于废水的流行病学和严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型：阿普利亚地区（意大利南部）的变异趋势和一些环境参数的影响。

在新冠肺炎大流行期间，废水监测已被用于监测进入污水系统的SARS-CoV-2 RNA水平。在意大利，卫生研究院协调了严重急性呼吸系统综合征项目（意大利的Sorveglianza Ambientale Refue），以检测严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型及其变种。在这项研究中，评估了针对新冠肺炎病例的原废水中SARS-CoV-2及其变体的浓度，以及温度和降水对病毒传播的影响。我们验证了De Giglio等人2021年提出的预测模型，以确定每10万居民中新冠肺炎病例数。受试者操作特征曲线模型用于预测新冠肺炎病例数，泊松回归用于研究温度和降雨量对病毒载量的影响。在阿普利亚，从2021年10月到2022年12月，我们分析了1041份样本，其中985份（94.6%）的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型检测呈阳性。中位大气温度与废水中的病毒载量成反比；与降水量无相关性。预测模型证实，在废水中检测到病毒后的15天内，每10万居民中至少会出现11例病例。严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型的环境监测可用于绘制病毒及其变种的地图。

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来源期刊

Food and Environmental Virology ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-MICROBIOLOGY

CiteScore

6.50

自引率

2.90%

发文量

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Food and Environmental Virology publishes original articles, notes and review articles on any aspect relating to the transmission of pathogenic viruses via the environment (water, air, soil etc.) and foods. This includes epidemiological studies, identification of novel or emerging pathogens, methods of analysis or characterisation, studies on survival and elimination, and development of procedural controls for industrial processes, e.g. HACCP plans. The journal will cover all aspects of this important area, and encompass studies on any human, animal, and plant pathogenic virus which is capable of transmission via the environment or food.